There have been as many as 47 recessions in the United States dating back to the Articles of Confederation , and although economists and historians dispute certain 19th-century recessions,  the consensus view among economists and historians is that "The cyclical volatility of GDP and unemployment was greater before the Great Depression than it has been since the end of World War II. The NBER defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy , lasting more than two quarters which is 6 months, normally visible in real gross domestic product GDP , real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales". In the 19th century, recessions frequently coincided with financial crises. Determining the occurrence of preth-century recessions is more difficult due to the dearth of economic statistics , so scholars rely on historical accounts of economic activity, such as contemporary newspapers or business ledgers. Although the NBER does not date recessions before , economists customarily extrapolate dates of U. Their work is aided by historical patterns, in that recessions often follow external shocks to the economic system such as wars and variations in the weather affecting agriculture, as well as banking crises.
20.1 Growth of Real GDP and Business Cycles
List of recessions in the United States - Wikipedia
This morning the National Bureau of Economic Research 's Business Cycle Dating Committee released a statement, which said that it's premature to declare the recession that started in December is over, but that doesn't mean we're still in a recession. First a little background: the committee is considered the official arbiter of when U. Currently, there are seven economists who serve on the nonpartisan, nonprofit group, which was formed in , though the NBER has been dating recessions since The NBER doesn't define a recession in terms of two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP, a definition that is often cited as a rule of thumb. Rather, a recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.
7 of Last 9 Recessions Started in Quarters with Positive GDP
Think recessions begin when GDP is negative? Think 2 quarters of negative growth are required to start a recession? This is a partial list:. Q: The financial press often states the definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. A: Most of the recessions identified by our procedures do consist of two or more quarters of declining real GDP, but not all of them.
The National Bureau of Economic Research NBER is an American private nonprofit research organization "committed to undertaking and disseminating unbiased economic research among public policymakers, business professionals, and the academic community. Poterba of MIT. The NBER was founded in Its first staff economist, director of research, and one of its founders was American economist Wesley Clair Mitchell. He was succeeded by Malcolm C.